Supporting Performances

One of these categories is not as locked up as it may seem. It's rare to get both wins from the same movie, and historically, the academy loves upsetting the supporting actress front runner (just ask Judy Davis and Lauren Bacall). However, ever since Juliette Benoche upset Lauren Bacall (which in part led me to predict Julianne Moore to win over front runner and ultimate winner Kim Basinger the next year), the academy has done a better job of ensuring that the front runners win (Jennifer Connelly, Catherine Zeta-Jones), with only one upset since (in 2000 when Marcia Gay Harden beat Kate Hudson). I think the academy will hold to its recent pattern here, in an unfortunate loss for good taste.

Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Jennifer Hudson. She's won every award, and while most critics groups don't have voting academy members, she has also won most guild awards and the SAG award, indicating a strong following that should lead to a win here. The only thing that may stop her is the Academy's penchant to use this category to reward a relatively unknown nominee from an underlooked film. (Marissa Tomei, Mira Sorvino, and Marcia Gay Harden all benefited from this). While none of the nominees this year can be classifed as both unknown and from an underlooked film, three of them fall into at least one of those categories. Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi are both unknown, but Babel is hardly overlooked. Cate Hudson is known, but Notes on a Scandal didn't quite get its due this year. However, she has an Oscar in this category, and probably won't win again after just 2 years. Abigail Breslin is out of luck. After Anna Paquin's horrid acceptance speech, the academy has seemed to ban young winners. Then, there's no denying that while Dreamgirls has the most nominations, it could be considered overlooked since it was locked out of most other major categories, which works to Jennifer's favor. If there's going to be an upset, I predict Rinko Kikuchi, but I think Hudson will take it.

Should Win: Abigail Breslin. Any 10 year old that can pull of that dance deserves this award. Then there's the bedtime scene with Alan Arkin. She showed more depth of emotion than Jennifer Hudson ever did. Plus, a win for just her second big picture would really stick it to that Fanning bitch.

Should Have Been Nominated: Vera Farmiga. As the love interest and significant plot point in The Departed, she remained understated yet unwavering as the film's moral core. In the hands of a lesser actress this would have been an overwraught, self-indulgent performance. She brought it to life and made the character resonate. She's only one of several puzzling acting omissions from this great movie.

Should Not Have Been Nominated: No surprise here for any of my loyal readers, it's Jennifer Hudson. Read any of my numerous previous posts on Dreamgirls for my reasons.

Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win: In the first upset of the night, this one will go to Alan Arkin. Most of the major players from Little Miss Sunshine were snubbed, and with Abigail Breslin guaranteed to lose, the Academy will feel a need to recognize someone from the ensemble, especially to justify the other awards this one will win. Eddie Murphy just didn't cut it. The character was not a stretch for him despite the media trying to label it as such to create a comeback story to go hand in hand with Jennifer Hudson's Cinderella story. Plus, Murphy had the misfortune to see Norbit come out just as Alan Arkin's star was starting to rise (with his comeback story rivaling anything printed about Murphy's), which happened at just the time voters were receiving their ballots. That's going to come back to haunt him and Arkin will take it.

Should Win: Alan Arkin. No contest here. Great performance, great movie, great backstory, he deserves it.

Should Have Been Nominated: Jan Vlasak, for his creepy, understated performance in Hostel. This is a long shot, even by my standards of wishful thinking (again, predicted Titanic backlash). The academy generally despises horror movies, with only Rosemary's Baby, The Exorcist, Misery, and Silence of the Lambs getting major awards, and only Silence taking Best Picture. Then, there was the firestorm of controversy around Hostel; it was reputed to be sadistic, graphic, disgusting, morally repugnant. Bullshit. Hostel is by far the best post 9-11 horror movie to date. It perfectly captures our fear of something horrible happening out of the blue, and provides a sweet revenge fantasy, in which we retaliate on an even grander scale than we were attacked, and in this fantasy, we don't botch the retaliation. It perfectly captured our national mood, and the blood, guts, and gore, far from being gratuitous, served the story well. As the central villain, Vlasak was the calm in the eye of the storm. He could have so easily overplayed his hand, and he didn't. It was a compelling performance in an eminently watchable movie that should not have been so easily dismissed as a fringe/cult/genre picture.

Should not have been nominated: Again, no surprise, Eddie Murphy, for many of the reasons discussed above. It was not a stretch for him by any means, he was really playing himself, and that makes him much more vulnerable than pundits would have you believe.