Actress Predictions

Happy Monday! My tickets for Superman arrived on Saturday, now I just have to get my companion to get the tickets for Light and Scoundrels. It's going to be a busy summer, which I'm looking forward to. I've kind of wimped out on the past couple summers, it's nice to have a lot of activities to look forward to again. Theatre on the Lake tickets go on sale tomorrow, I'll be calling first thing and then taking a lunch trip to Borders. Anyways, on with the predictions:

Best Performance By A Featured Actress In A Musical
Who Will Win: This is a tough call, but I'm going with Charlotte d'Amboise for A Chorus Line. She's kind of the Kathy Griffin of Broadway, she's always ready to come in at the last minute but has never had her starring turn, until now. She's going to win, for a lot of the same reasons that LaChanze won Leading Actress last year, but at least she deserves it. I listened to the revival cast recording yesterday again (BTW, not a good CD to listen to on an el car filled with drunk Cubs fans, with all the dance cues as part of the music it was all I could do not to put on a show myself which would have ended with me in a hospital), and it really is a good recording. Since the Revival prize doesn't seem to be in the cards, I don't think the voters will want to send the former longest running show on Broadway home empty handed. However, there is a good chance that either Karen Ziemba or Mary Louise Wilson could take this, especially if either of their shows stage major upsets. There isn't a frontrunner in this category, mostly because Debra Monk has taken it in the earlier awards, but because of the strict Tony rules around classification (if the name is above the title it's leading, if it's under it's featured) she got a bump to the Leading Actress category (more discussion of this below), leaving this one wide open. I think the voters will be happy to finally give Charlotte her due and we'll see her dance away with this one. BTW, I saw both her and Karen Ziemba in Chicago in late 1998. Karen was Velma and Charlotte was Roxie and they were quite a pair. Talk about life imitating art. Karen's already won this one though, so I think it's still safe for Charlotte.
Who Should Win: As much as I'm a fan of Charlotte, my heart is with Mary Louise Wilson. She held her own against Christine, and if you've seen the documentary, she totally became Big Edie for the second act. She also got the best song (for all the hype around Da-Da-Da-Da-Da-Da-Da, Jerry Likes My Corn is the real highlight of the show) and hits it out of the park. The problem is that she's only in the second act, all the other nominees got more stage time, making them stronger contenders. However, the Tribune is predicting her to win, so maybe there's a chance.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: In a year of standout performances, it's hard to pick just one, but I'd have to go with the woman who played David Hyde Pierce's love interest in Curtains. I don't recall her name at the moment, and Playbill.com is no help at all in trying to nail it down, but I will update this tomorrow after I buy the CD. Whoever she was, she was great at keeping us wondering how much she was involved in the murder and provided a lot of dramatic momentum to the show.
Who Should Not Have Been Nominated: Orfeh. I'm officially over the one name craze and Tony Voters going nuts for them. Also, shame on the Tribune for suggesting that Legally Blonde is a better show than Curtains. A pox on their theatre critic!

Best Performance By A Featured Actress In A Play
Who Will Win: This is also a tough won to predict because of multiple nominees from shows, but I'm going with Martha Plimpton for The Coast of Utopia (the Trib is predicting Jennifer Ehle, also from Utopia). She's won this won earlier and there's no reason for her not to now. Coram Boy also has two women nominated, making it more unlikely that it will upset Utopia here, however, it does open up the possibility for Dana Ivey to take this for Butley. However, given that she's got the only nomination for the show (along with Hal Prince, the nominating committee has really soured on Nathan Lane lately as well), it's a long shot. The voters really seem to hate the show and I don't think they'll let it win.
Who Should Win: Again, I haven't seen any of the nominees, so I really can't say, and unlike the tech awards, which can be judged through photos and publicity, it's too hard to make a call when it comes to actual content, so I'm going to take a pass on the editiorial content for this category.

Best Performance By A Leading Actress In A Musical
Who Will Win: In one of the two most anticipated categories of the night, I think the front runner will take this one. Christine Ebersole will get her second, much overdue, Tony for her performances as both the Edie's in Grey Gardens. She's getting the bulk of attention for her performance in the second act, but her work in the first act shouldn't (and won't ) be overlooked. Especially after last year's horrid debacle in this category, I think the voters will keep in line and give her her due, especially since no one else has emerged as a front runner. There was some talk about Audra McDonald snatching this away, and while still is a possibility (voters may want to make up for her loss in the leading category in 2000 when she lost, deservingly so, to Heather Headley, who won for Aida), and she, along with Donna Murphy, won the Drama Desk award. However, the show hasn't caught momentum, and I think Audra's going to get her second loss here. She's got plenty of time to capture a win in a leading category and despite her Marie Christine loss, she really doesn't need to have anything made up to her, I think the voters will wait. The other possible spoiler could be Donna Murphy, a two time Tony winner herself, but again, given the voters' apathy towards LoveMusik, I don't think it's going to happen. There's still resentment over how she won her second award, and I think she's going to be the Marissa Tomei of the Tony's for some time to come. In addition, both she and Laura Bell Bundy are unfortunate enough to be nominated for shows that did not get a Best Musical nomination. While we can all think of an exception (Liza Minelli and Heather Headley come to mind for me), the leading acting awards usually do not go to shows that aren't nominated either for Best Musical or Best Revival. The last time it happened was in 2000, when Heather Headley won for Aida, which was also nominated, and won, for Best Book and Score, but was shut out of the top category. The voters like to see their winners perform, and with all the hoopla surrounding performances on the telecast this year, I think Donna and Laura will be sitting this one out. The last contender is Debra Monk, and while she has already won awards for this role, they've been supporting/featured. As I mentioned above, because of the rigid nominating committee rules, she was nominated in the Leading category for what is essentially a supporting role, and I don't think the voters will give this to her since she isn't on stage enough to really classify as a leading performance, although she does have one of the best songs in the show. Despite not being eligible for earlier awards and not able to have built up momentum, Christine will still get the big one.
Who Should Win: No question, it's Christine. Enough said.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: It's a tough call, but I'd have to go with Stephanie J. Block, edging out Lea Michele. Stephanie provided heart and direction to a large, sprawling show, and while the show itself was less than successful in getting its point across (assuming there was a point), she was able to anchor it and give it focus, and is way overdue for a nomination. I was shocked that she didn't get the nomination, but it's a tough year. Nevertheless, she should have been nominated over the next actress I'm going to mention. . .
Who Should Not Have Been Nominated: Laura Bell Bundy. Again, why oh why? There were so many better performances this year, how did this one sneak in?

Best Performance By A Leading Actress In A Play
Who Will Win: And in the night's other most anticipated category, I'm afraid there's a good chance the front runner, or at least the sentimental favorite, is not going to win. Angela Lansbury will suffer her first loss at the Tony's, and the award will go to Vanessa Redgrave, for The Year of Magical Thinking. Other predictions for this category have been all over the place, with EW picking Julie White, and the Trib picking Eve Best (a possible spoiler), but I think it's going to break in Vanessa's favor. However, she and Angela, and possibly Swoozie could split the sentimental vote, opening up the possibility for either Julie or Eve to win. I would give Eve the edge since her show lasted longer, but in this category, more than any other, except for maybe featured actor, anything could happen. However, since the nominated plays don't get much of a performance, the voters don't care as much about making sure the winner is from a nominated play or revival, and that helps Vanessa. Still, you can't count Angela out either. She pulled off a couple of tough wins in the past and it could happen again. But, if the voters handed Mary Martin her first loss on her final nomination, it could happen here, although hopefully there will be more for Angela. By all accounts, Vanessa commands the stage and gives a heart rending performance every night, I think she'll be recognized here.
Who Should Win: I haven't seen any of the nominees, although hopefully I will see Deuce in a couple of weeks, so I can't say, but I do like all the nominees, so any winner will be deserving, although I am sentimentally leaning towards Angela.

That's it for today. Since I'm taking a trip to Borders tomorrow, look for my next predictions on Wednesday as I'll take on the men.