February Madness

It seems like just yesterday I was predicting Alan Arkin's win and now it's time to do it again. Everyone thought last year was a wide open race, but that was nothing compared to this year. Seeing as how the straight Oscars ended with a surprise upset a few weeks ago, I'm betting it's more than likely we'll be seeing a few of those this year, more than just Alan Arkin or Crash (which really were no surprise here). With that said, here are my thought.

Since no one really cares about the technical awards, I'm not going to spend much time here. I care more about the snubs in these categories than most of the nominees. Rescue Dawn and Harry Potter should have dominated the music, costumes, cinematography, editing, and all the categories of visual and audio effects. I can understand why the Academy would shy away from Harry, but do they really hate Christian Bale that much? And if so, why? Or, is it that they just hate movies? What does it say about the Academy, and the world we live in, when Norbit is an academy award nominated movie, and Hairspray didn't get any? Ironically, Norbit's one nomination is in the category that Hairspray didn't deserve - makeup, but Hairspray definitely should have at least gotten a nod for costumes. And even if Hairspray didn't deserve a makeup nomination (whoever did John Travolta should be kicked out of the makeup artists union for life), is Eddie Murphy in another fat suit really worth a nomination? I would have prefered 28 Weeks Later in this category. Looking at Documentaries, any of them would be worthy. I'm partial to Sicko, but No End In Sight will probably take it. Animation has lately replaced Best Supporting Actress as the upset category du jour, so look for Persepolis to win there. Now, on to the ones we care about!

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Who Will Win: As with most of the major categories, there's no frontrunner here. With No Country and Blood leading the Best Picture race, either could be favored here, and indeed, the winner in this category will probably make a return trip to the stage at the end of the night. However, they could cancel each other out, opening the way for Atonement, a potential dark horse in the Best Picture race. Away from Her and Diving Bell probably have little chance here, although seeing as how the Academy likes to use the screenplay category as a consolation prize (see Pulp Fiction, Fargo, Brokeback, Little Miss Sunshine), Diving Bell could take this one. However, the consolation prize this year is more likely to happen in the Original category, and I'm predicting No Country For Old Men to take this one. While the ending has been criticized, Blood's ending has been widely ridiculed and the Academy won't take a chance on it. No Country has an impeccable literary pedigree and survived the page to screen adaptation process much better than Blood or Atonement, making it the winner.

Who Should Win: Call me sentimental, but I think Sarah Polley's touching Away From Her deserves this one. Her achievement, at the age of 28 no less, and for a first time picture, is astonishing. Of course, being in Academy-land, the most deserving is the least likely to win.

Who Should Have Been Nominated: John Logan, for Sweeney Todd. He took a sprawling, messy (narratively, that is), not necessarily linear, chorus-based (as in Greek Chorus), fabulous stage production, and turned it into a sprawling, tightly told, gut-wrenching, emotionally involving, absorbing, fabulous movie. He accomplished what screenwriters on Phantom, Rent, The Producers, Dreamgirls, and to a certain extent Hairspray, all failed to do: he produced the first quality script for a movie musical since Chicago and should have gotten his due here, especially since he claims not to have been a fan of musicals to start with. We never would have known, there's that much love throughout the script.

Who Should Not Have Been Nominated: Really, the nominees here are all deserving. In some ways, Diving Bell is the weakest choice, but in others it's also the strongest. There's been a lot of rumbling that Atonement botched the book's surprise ending, so that's the one most likely in need of replacing. I know I would have appreciated Sweeney over any of these 5, but Atonement is probably the weakest link.

Best Original Screenplay:
Who Will Win: This is one of the night's few no-brainers. Diablo Cody will take home the prize for Juno. Remember what I said earlier about the screenplay category usually being a consolation prize? Everyone loves Juno but comedies don't win (and if Little Miss Sunshine couldn't win last year, when only one person in the world - Entertainment Weekly's Lisa Schwartzbaum - hated it, Juno is not going to win with the amount of backlash it's already generated), so Juno gets the consolation prize this year. There's a decent chance that Michael Clayton could end up getting the consolation prize instead - the Academy LOVES George Clooney, and by extension anything he does, but also won't give the top prize to a procedural - but Diablo's got the better rags to riches story and will ride this one all the way home.

Who Should Win: The pickings are much slimmer on this side of the fence (was it really that weak a year for screenplays? All of these were written well before the strike, what's that going to say about next year's crop of nominees?), so Michael Clayton stands head and shoulders above all the others. If there was any justice, Tony Gilroy would be striding up to the podium instead of Diablo Cody slinking up to it.

Who Should Have Been Nominated: So many choices, but my heart goes with John Carney for Once. Like Sarah Polley, he crafted such a warm gentle yet profound movie that belies its hidden depths. Movies like Once don't come around very often, it would be nice if the Academy could recognize them when they do.

Who Should Not Have Been Nominated: And here it is, the start of this year's hate train. Last year we had Dreamgirls, this year we have Juno. I can understand the appeal, I want to like it too, but no one, not even yours truly, was that precocious of a 16-year-old girl. The script is a mix of preposterous and pretentious (The Moldy Peaches?!?!?! It definitely nailed Juno's character, but not in the way they intended, see Jim DeRogatis's excellent commentary in the Sun-Times on this topic), and while it means well, you know what they say about good intentions. Just ask Sweeney.

Stay tuned tomorrow for the Actress predictions.