The Big Ones

And we're down to the top two. One's fairly certain, one is wide open. Just like Idol results night, there's going to be way too much filler to get to this point, and anything can happen.

Best Director: The most anticipated event in Oscar history. How will it play out?
Will Win: I'm not completely convinced it's going to happen, but I will go out on a limb and predict that this will finally be Martin Scorsese's year. The Departed was a great movie, while his last two nominations (The Aviator and Gangs of New York) were not. This is his first deserving nomination since The Last Temptation of Christ (and while we're at it, he's been unfairly ignored even more than he's been unfairly nominated; Alice Doesn't Live Here Any More Taxi Driver, Cape Fear, Casino, and Kundun all should have brought him nominations), and a return to the genre he's reputed to do best (see my previous parenthetical discussion), and add the chance to right a longstanding wrong, and these could equal a win. However, there are still a lot of hurdles. There's a lot of sentiment for Paul Greengrass, and Scorsese could fall victim to the Brokeback/Crash effect (also known as the Bacall/Binoche effect): so many people think he could win that they will vote for their favorite "underdog" and one of the nominees could end up with one or two more votes and take the trophy. There's a real chance that could happen here, and while Greengrass may be the most likely beneficiary (for United 93), there's a great chance it could go to Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (for Babel), or even Clint Eastwood (again) for Letters from Iwo Jima. The only one guaranteed not to win is Stephen Frears. The Queen has been criticized within the academy for seeming too much like a BBC America made for TV movie rather than a feature film. I'll be on my seat with the rest of the country as this envelope is opened. It's still anyone's guess.

Should Win: Some critics (namely Roger Ebert) have opted out of naming their personal favorite out of respect for Scorsese, but since when has that been a concern for me? I would like to see Paul Greengrass take this one. He did such a great job with a very sensitive topic, and managed to make us forget for 93 minutes what was going to happen to the titled airplane. United 93's been shut out of most major awards, although it did win one early critic's association award for Best Picture, and this win would make up for a lot.

Should Have Been Nominated: All the nominees here are strong and deserve their nomination, but like the Original Screenplay category, there's a 6th equally deserving nominee that it would have been nice to see here: Edward Zick for Blood Diamond. Ebert best described the movie as "controlled chaos" and as the director, Zwick masterfully controlled the chaos into a well done movie. His name should be up there too.

Should Not Have Been Nominated: None. They are all fine choices, and even if Scorsese doesn't win, any winner will truly deserve it.

Best Picture
Will Win: I'm going out on another limb and saying Little Miss Sunshine. Comedies don't do well at the Oscars, but this one has really tapped into something. Everyone loves it, and it's a great opportunity to reassert Sundance's legitimacy after years of highly hyped Sundance products fizzling in the mass market. Plus, it won the SAG award, just as Crash did last year. If it won that one with enough of a margin, the actors could have the final say again this year.

Should Win: Little Miss Sunshine. While it would be nice to have our first Asian Language (or for that matter, any foreign language) Best Picture winner, and while I loved The Departed, this one is by far my favorite of the bunch. It was hearwarming without being cloying. It retold a familiar tale without being cliched. I laughed my ass off at the end. What's not to love?

Shoudl Have Been Nominated: Again, with 5 such deserving nominees, I can't begrudge any of them, but I really would have like to see United 93 in this category. Other than Iwo Jima, the other four films have gotten so much exposure and have all won so many awards, it would have been nice, in a Crash kind of way, for United 93 to have been allowed to share in some of the glory.

Should Not Have Been Nominated: Again, none. They are all solid choices and I'll be happy to see any of them win. This has been the greatest year for movies in a long time (I know, I said that last year, but this year managed to surpass last year's bumper crop of Brokeback, Munich, History of Violence, Junebug, and Match Point), and for the first time in an even longer time, I'm not pissed off about any of the nominees. Let's pop the champagne and watch how this plays out.