Bring On The Men

Good morning. Before I get started with my predictions, I have to say something to all Chicago area drivers. If you are in the left lane, you CANNOT make a right hand turn. I almost got into 2 accidents on my way to work this morning because retarded morons in the left lane suddenly tried to turn right as I was coming up behind them in the right lane. I'm sure in Guada Los Nachos or wherever you're from, there are no lane markings on the dirt roads and no one can afford cars anyways and ride around in goat carts, but you're in our city now, learn how to fucking drive or take public transportation and let the bus drivers cause accidents, at least the CTA has insurance. Now, speaking of wrecks, The Pirate Queen will be closing next week, losing a buttload of money I'm sure. It's disappointing but not surprising. The show had a lot of potential, but some reason, they just couldn't get it to live up to it. It was too busy, unfocused, loud, and bombastic to really make its point. So far, the cast album is still scheduled to be released July 3rd, but given how Lestat's album never appeared on its announced release date after it closed and is still languishing in cast album purgatory, I'm skeptical that this one will see the light of day. Still, if Martin Guerre got a cast album, there's a chance it could happen here. Now, on with the predictions.

Best Performance By A Featured Actor In A Musical
Who Will Win: This is probably the most wide open category of the night. Anything can happen here, but I'm predicting John Gallagher Jr. to win for Spring Awakening. As I've mentioned earlier, most Best Musical winners see at least one of their performers win (although that's not holding as true lately, as The Lion King, Avenue Q, Fosse, and Titanic can all attest to), and with Spring Awakening the favorite to win, this is its best chance to capture a performing award. Plus, he was really, really, really good. However, either Jonathan Cullum or David Pittu could upset this category. David has already won some earlier awards, giving him the most momentum out of anyone in this category, but the Tonys don't seem to love LoveMusik as much as other professional award giving groups did. Jonathan is a Tony favorite and could win just because he's him, but again, given the show's inability to catch fire beyond Audra's performance, I don't think it's his year.
Who Should Win: Definitely John Gallagher Jr. He gave a very complex, realistic performance and played the character to perfection. He's earned this award.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: John McMartin for Grey Gardens. He commanded the stage as Major Bouvier in the first act, towering over Christine as he dressed Edie down, and provided some comic relief as Norman Vincent Peale in the second act. He was a major pillar of the show, and how he got overlooked is a mystery.
Who Should Not Have Been Nominated: Yes, he's gorgeous, he can sing, he's fabu on the Time After Time/Dodsworth CD, he's going to be my new boyfriend, but Christian Borle did not deserve to be nominated. Again, why the nominating committee loved Legally Blonde so much is a complete mystery, it should be consigned to the dustbin of theatre history.

Best Performance By A Featured Actor In A Play
Who Will Win: Another up for grabs category, this one again defies prediction, this time due to multiple nominees from same shows. Stark Sands has the edge here since he's the only nominee from Journey's End. Utopia and Radio Golf each have two nominees in this category, increasing the chance of splits, allowing Sands to rise to the top. However, if Utopia sweeps, which it could, although rumblings indicate that it may not be as secure as previously thought, Billy Crudup could take it. Ethan Hawke is the only one that's almost definitely assured to not win, the voters just don't like him, although I'm completely baffled as to why. That allows Billy to accumulate the most votes from the pro-Utopia crowd and could push him into the lead, especially since he's much more well known than Sands.
Who Should Win: Again, I'm forgoing all editorial comment here since I haven't seen any of the nominees, although sentimentally I'm leaning towards Ethan Hawke because he's been so unfairly overlooked before.

Best Performance By A Leading Actor In A Musical
Who Will Win: This one is one of the more sure things of the night. Raul Esparza will take this one for Company. He's won most of the earlier awards and has a lot of momentum going for him. However, his performance style could turn off a number of voters, leading to a win for Gavin Lee, the other winner of earlier awards in this category. However, like Debra Monk, he's won the earlier awards in the supporting category (splitting with David Pitu) but got bumped up due to the committee's strict categorization rules, and most likely will not win because he's nominated for what is essentially a supporting performance. Again, a sweep by Spring Awakening could propel Jonathan Groff to the podium (and his naked butt deserves an award of its own), but voters might be turned off by his character's aggressive sexuality and a very uncomfortable scene with Lea Michele and a birch switch (now if the scene had been with John Gallagher Jr and a birch switch I think we all would have been a lot happier and he just might have had a better chance at winning). Michael Cerveris, the only Tony winner in this category is the long shot, they hated LoveMusik. I think Raul's got this one safe.
Who Should Win: David Hyde Pierce. Yes, the performance may have been a bit lightweight and only a step away from Niles Crane, but I just loved him in Curtains, maybe because I can identify with his love of musical theatre and a win for him would be like a win for me.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: It's hard to say, I really can't think of anyone else, I think they got this one right.
Who Should Not Have Been Nominated: Again, this category is mostly right. Gavin Lee is the weakest nomination, but it's still not anywhere near as egregious as Laura Bell Bundy on the actress side. Also, I may have not agreed with Raul's choices in his performance, but having made the choices he did, he played them to the hilt and deserves at least the nomination. So, for once, I really have nothing to complain about, at least with the nominations. Once the winner is announced, I may have some bitching to do if they go with one of the weaker ones, but we'll deal with that as it comes. No remotes through the TV screen this year!

Best Performance By A Leading Actor In A Play
Who Will Win: Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon. He's won every award up to this point, there's no reason for it to stop now. For some reason, even though he appeared in three plays, Brian F. O'Byrne just hasn't caught the fire I would have expected. There's still a chance he could take this to make up for his unexpected loss for Doubt a couple years ago, but I don't think he's going to get enough sympathy votes to stop Frank. Christopher Plummer might get some sentimental votes, but again, not enough. Everyone's loving Frank, and there's speculation that the momentum he's brought to the table could propel F/N to a best play win, but more on that Friday.
Who Should Win: Again, I have not seen any of the nominees, so I can't say. It's a solid category, we'll let the voters decide this one.

That's it for today. Tomorrow I'll reveal my picks for Score, Book, and theatrical event.