Actresses and a Song

One of the more interesting "lesser" categories that I forgot to mention yesterday was Best Song. Obviously, I'm pulling for "Falling Slowly" from Once to win. Unfortunately, as is true with most categories, the most deserving is the least likely to win. Looking at the nominees, the odds would seem to favor Stephen Schwartz, who would deservingly win as well for any of the three songs from Enchanted, and indeed, 10 years ago, he would have been assured a win. However, times have changed, and in an effort to appear more "hip" the Academy over the past few years has had a habit of awarding what can most charitably be categorized as "crap" in this category, culminating in the execrable and inexplicable win for "It's Hard Out Here For A Pimp" two years ago. They made up for it last year by ignoring all 3 Dreamgirls nominations and giving the award to the truly best song and best performer in the category, but having done that, they will now feel free to go back to awarding crap and the winner will be "Raise It Up" from August Rush. Not a good night for music.

Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: This is one of the more interesting categories as none of the nominees are all that great, giving the category a distinct lack of excitement. Even an upset in this category really wouldn't be very exciting as it would just be one blah actress winning instead of another. The early favorite here was Amy Ryan for Gone Baby Gone, but after winning an armful of early awards, she suddenly saw her cache drop when Ruby Dee won the SAG award and Cate Blanchett won the Golden Globe, placing them in the running. However, I'm thinking that Tilda Swinton will take this one. Hollywood loves her almost as much as it loves George Clooney, and since Michael Clayton doesn't have much chance for any other awards, they'll be sure to recognize it, and by extension George, here. It's the same consolation prize tendency that brought us the phrase "Oscar Winning Actress Marcia Gay Harden."

Who Should Win: Again, I'm not that thrilled with any of these, but Amy Ryan seems to be the best choice. It's a meaty role and she gave it her all, making it definitely the most memorable of the 5 performances here.

Who Should Have Been Nominated: I know it would have been a long shot, but Imelda Staunton strongly deserved a nomination for her performance in Harry Potter. This one was NOT a kids' movie and her performance as a female George W. was strong, three dimensional, and memorable, completely unlike the real life George. She made it very easy to understand how evil can flourish in uncertain times.

Who Should Not Have Been Nominated: I love her, but this was not her year for making movies. Cate Blanchett has no business being in this category, or in the Best Actress category either. Unlike Amy Ryan's showy performance, this was a show-off-y performance and the Academy should have known better. Cate should have too.

Best Actress
Who Will Win: In a somewhat more exciting category (they've got three deserving nominees here), it's a close race between early favorite Julie Christie, and gaining-ground-fast Marion Cotillard. I'm thinking Christie has the edge, she's a previous winner long overdue for a second while Cotillard can always come back later. However, the Academy has been loving female biographical portrayals lately (after Gwyneth Paltrow won at the 1998 ceremony, only 2 other actresses since have won for playing fictional characters - Halle Berry in 2001 for Monster's Ball and Hilary Swank in 2005 for Million Dollar Baby), which could favor Cotillard. She also stepped up her momentum just as the Oscar ballots went out. Still, there's a lot of love for Christie among the acting community and I think she'll come out on top.

Who Should Win: In a rare occurance, Julie Christie is the most deserving here. Why she hasn't gotten a second Oscar way before this is a mystery. It'll be nice to see the Academy finally coming to its senses.

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Nikky Blonsky. Two words: Jennifer Hudson. If that untalented wannabe hack could win, Nikky should at least have been nominated. Enough said.

Who Should Not Have Been Nominated: While I am not fond of Cate Blanchett's nomination here either (she got a second nomination for the same role with the god-awful Elizabeth: The Golden Age while Anthony Hopkins got ignored on his second and third go-rounds with Hannibal Lecter? Criminal.), it's Ellen Page here that really pisses me off. Don't get me wrong, I love her and totally think she should have been nominated for Hard Candy, and can't wait to see what she'll do next, but this was not a performance to remember. Similar to how the Moldy Peaches completely embody Juno's character in almost the completely opposite way from what Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody intended, Ellen's performance here completely works against establishing the personality that Reitman and Cody intended Juno to have. She manages to get the characterization completely right and yet so completely wrong at the same time, maybe she does deserve the nomination after all, it's not many actresses that can do that.

With that, come back tomorrow for a look at the much more interesting actor races.