Actors

A couple of things before we get into the actor predictions. I watched the first act of Company on PBS' Great Performances last night (it went way past my bedtime so I'll be watching the rest sometime this weekend between Linda Eder and the Oscars). I loved the sets and costumes even more with an up close view and am even more baffled how it got shut out from nominations in both categories at the Tony's. I can appreciate Raul's performance more too seeing his closeups instead of watching the action from the upper half of the balcony. It's definitely a very subtle performance which is probably what hurt him at the Tony's. The voters in all the critics and guild awards probably would have scored closer seats than some of the Tony voters and been able to fully appraise his performance. Still, if the people in the balcony can't see enough to appreciate it, is it really a good performance? While I'm liking it more than when I saw it, I'm still not completely sold on it. There's a lot of business on the stage that I find distracting and too many of the cast members are "Acting" which really grates on my nerves. It doesn't feel like anyone's taking it seriously. It comes across even more so on TV than it did live, so I am now even more firm in my opinion that 110 in the Shade should have gotten best revival, and probably would have had Sweeney not been robbed the year before. Next, when I went to playbill.com for my daily dose of news, I saw the thrilling announcment that John Barrowman, who does such an excellent job playing Captain Jack on Torchwood (the best show currently on TV, if you get BBC America, you must check it out), is in talks to play the title role in Barnum next year in London. I may be making another trip. Now, onto the actors.

Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: One of the other no-brainers of the night, this one goes to Javier Bardem. No one else will come close.
Who Should Win: Javier, it's as close to a perfect performance as possible.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Really, any of the other male performers in Sweeney, except maybe for Borat who I exclude on principle, should have been nominated, but the best among them was definitely Alan Rickman, another long overdue underappreciated performer in a long list of them this year.
Who Should Not Have Been Nominated: Normally I like him, but Philip Seymour Hoffman just doesn't cut it here. The whole movie didn't cut it, although it was gratifying to see just how low Tom Hanks' and Julia Roberts' caches have sunk over just a few years. The Terminal and Mona Lisa Smile may turn out to have been bigger mistakes than they even seemed at the time.

Best Actor
Who Will Win: This is being touted as a no-brainer, but I think it may be a little closer than the conventional wisdom is assuming. Still, it would take a lot for anyone other than Daniel Day Lewis to win this one. The ending and that infamous line may scare away some voters towards George Clooney, but Daniel's got enough support he should still come out on top. It'll be nice to see him win for something he deserves and we can finally all put Gangs of New York behind us.
Who Should Win: No surprise for my constant readers, but Johnny Depp gave the gutsiest and most successful performance of the bunch. Unfortunately, he's being O'Toole-ed by the Academy and the most he can look forward to is an honorary Oscar in about another 20-30 years.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: No question, Glen Hansard deserved to belong in this group. It was a very nuanced, balanced performance, no "Acting" here.
Who Should Not Have Been Nominated: It's so hard for me to say this, but Viggo Mortenson is the odd one out here. He's nominated for the wrong movie. He should have been nominated 2 years ago for A History Of Violence, one of the greatest movies of the last 25 years. Maybe my expectations were too high after seeing that movie, but Eastern Promises just didn't live up and I found his performance flat and flaccid, although the bath house scene certainly provided a nice diversion. Still, while the nomination is an award for his gutsiness in filming that scene, the scene also guarantees he won't win, it'll turn off too many older conservative voters.

We're almost there, come back tomorrow for the final predictions.