Tony Predictions, Part I
Good morning. As promised, here is my first round of predictions for the Tony Awards. Most of the tech awards will be going to Utopia and Mary Poppins, making Bob Crowley the night's biggest winner.
Best Lighting Design Of A Musical
Who Will Win: Howard Harrison for Mary Poppins. As I mentioned, Poppins will get the bulk of the tech awards, mostly as a consolation prize for not getting any of the more substantial awards, but also because of the phenomenal achievement the musical represents in these areas. From all accounts, it's one of the most spectacular and high-tech shows to hit Broadway in a long time and I think the voters will recognize it. The possible spoiler would be Kevin Adams for Spring Awakening if Spring steamrolls the awards. However, a major sweep really hasn't happened lately, the closest thing being Light in the Piazza, which still only came away with 5 awards and didn't get the top prize.
Who Should Win: Peter Kaczorowski for Grey Gardens. Peter's work really made the musical come alive. The lengthening shadows of the first act as 5:15 approached was an excellent metaphor for the sun setting on Eddie and Little Eddie's life as they knew it, and the second act was just spectacular. The lighting was integral to the show without being too ostentatious.
Best Lighting Design Of A Play
Who Will Win: Brian Macdevitt, Kenneth Posner, & Natasha Katz for The Coast Of Utopia. Again, the trilogy is such a massive achievement, and it has swept the technical categories of all the pre-Tony awards, making it the favorite to win here. The only possible spoiler would be Coram Boy, which was such a multi-media experience, and the voters may decide to recognize it instead, especially since it's closing.
Who Should Win: Since I haven't seen any of the nominees, I really can't say, but I think Utopia should get it for all the hard work they put in, and from all accounts they really did do a terrific job.
Best Costume Design Of A Musical
Who Will Win: Bob Crowley for Mary Poppins. Again, it's a lot of work that he put in and I think the voters will recognize him for it. However, depending on the voters moods, it could just as easily go to Susan Hilferty for Spring Awakening (although this is a long shot, white dress shirts with black pants aren't really that difficult to come up with), or to William Ivey Long for Grey Gardens (a better chance, he nailed the early 40's Hamptons look and really stayed true to the movie for Little Edie's schizophrenically inspired second act get ups). However, I think the voters will stick with Poppins and reserve higher awards for the other shows.
Who Should Win: William Ivey Long. He gave each act a very different look that worked so well, it would be great to see him get recognition.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: The Times They Are A'Changin. Clown costumes rock!!! Just kidding. As I mentioned a few months ago, I would have loved to have seen Company get a nomination here. They nailed the look of the early 70's and did it so unobtrusively. I thought when I looked through the program, that there were separate people this time for costumes, set design, etc, unlike Sweeney Todd, which was all done by Doyle. Maybe I'm wrong, but even so, the nominating committee should have made an exception here, the work was superb.
Who Should Not Have Been Nominated: Gregg Barnes for Legally Blonde. Come on, Elle loves pink, that's so hard to do. This slot should have gone to a more deserving show, either Company or Pirate Queen.
Best Costume Design Of A Play
Who Will Win: Catherine Zuber for The Coast Of Utopia. This is more of a sure thing than Poppins' win in this category on the musical side. Catherine captured the look of two continents over a long stretch of time, and provided continuity for the three plays. This one is all hers. The possible spoiler would again be Coram Boy for its fantastic look and imagery, and the fact that it's closing. However, the voters gave multiple awards to a British import last year, and I don't see it happening two years in a row, they're going to go for a more uniquely American show.
Who Should Win: Again, I haven't seen any of them so I can't say, but Catherine gets the nod for all the work she put in.
Check back tomorrow for Scenic Design (no surprises there if you've read this far), Orchestrations, and Choreography (the most competitive category I've discussed to this point).

