The Big Ones

Well, here we are. It's been a fun week, expounding on my predictions and thoughts, but this is it. Just about 51 hours to go and we'll see how I did.

Best Special Theatrical Event
Who Will Win: Otherwise known as the "Does anyone really care?" category, this award will go to Jay Johnson: The Two And Only. This category was created in 2001 as a response to Contact winning Best Musical when it didn't feature any original music or any singing. It started off strong with Elaine Stritch taking home her first (and so far only) Tony with this category, but lately it doesn't seem to matter so much. Last year Chita got classified as a musical even though it was the kind of show this category was created to recognize, and this year while Martin Short doesn't show up anywhere (although that's a good thing, the more I listen to the CD the more I'm disappointed), Brooks Ashmanskas was nominated for Best Featured Actor for his performance in the show, indicating that the committee was also treating it like a musical. It may be time to put this category back to bed, maybe they can create a Best Jukebox Musical or Best Musical Based On A Popular Movie Created Solely To Rake In Cash so that crap like Jersey Boys and Legally Blonde don't take up space in the Best Musical category and leave it open for real shows.
Who Should Win: I don't really care, but Kiki & Herb have a strong Chicago connection, so it would be nice to see them take this, plus they're a little more non-traditional than Jay Johnson, so it would be a nice upset.

Best Revivial of A Play
Who Will Win: Journey's End. This is one of the stronger areas of consensus among the prognosticators, and while it didn't do terrific business, there was a good deal of fondness for it which I think will show through Sunday night.
Who Should Win: I can't say since I haven't seen any of them, but as long as Inherit The Wind doesn't win, I'm happy. I'm really just over that show, I'm not sure why, but I am, and it's not just this revival, it's the movie, the made for TV movie, and now this. I know it's even more relevant now than it was when it was first written, but it doesn't grab my attention.

Best Revival Of A Musical
Who Will Win: As a proxy for Sweeney Todd, Company will walk away with this one. Last year there was at least some speculation that Pajama Game could win, although even the people who admitted to the possibility still said there's no way the voters could have that little taste and still thought that Sweeney would win. Well, look how that turned out. Many voters were furious (although they didn't really have anyone else to blame), and this year there hasn't been any discussion about any of the other three nominees having any sort of chance. Company's already picked up Best Revival from just about everyone else, I think it's got the momentum to go all the way.
Who Should Win: It's harder to say since I've only seen Company (although I may get to see 110 next week, stay tuned), and while I wasn't wowed by it, I would like to see it win. However, it would also be nice to see The Apple Tree win since it's the biggest underdog, but I don't think this is its year.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Now I had thought that both A Chorus Line and Les Miz had been ruled ineligible because they were recreations of the original shows, not revivals done with major artistic changes. So, I was very surprised when A Chorus Line showed up in this category, and now I'm wondering why Les Miz didn't. While I love Audra, the word of mouth on 110 is that it's not that great, so I would have thought Les Miz would have been a lock for a nomination instead.
Who Should Not Have Been Nominated: Despite my comment about 110, I'm going to save judgement for this call until after I see more. It's too late for Apple Tree, but hopefully I'll get to the other two sometime this summer.

Best Play
Who Will Win: I'm still going with The Coast Of Utopia here. However, in this category and Best Musical, not only do the regular Tony voters get to vote, the regional theatre owners also get to vote, which is why there is so much discrepancy more years than not between the show that gets the most awards (Light in the Piazza, Beauty Queen of Lenane, The Drowsey Chaperone) and the show that takes the top award (Spamalot, Art, Jersey Boys). The owners generally vote for the show they think will make the best tour because it will make it easier for them to promote a show that comes in as a Best Play/Musical winner, and so if the New York vote is split between shows, the owners can propel one of them or a dark horse to the podium, and it could happen here tonight, in both the Play and Musical categories. Looking at the plays, Utopia would be almost impossible to tour. It's three shows with the same cast, it would either have to play each city for 3-6 months at a time, or start the tour with the first play, then two years later, end that tour and do the second play, and a few years later, end that one and do the final play. It probably doesn't have much of a life outside of Broadway. Frost/Nixon on the other hand is a short, 90 minute, 2 person show, perfect for regional owners to fill their houses and maximize their profit. If the New York vote splits between Utopia and F/N, which it very well could, both shows were highly loved and it's a tough decision for many voters which to support, the owners could unite behind Frost/Nixon and propel it to a win to give the tour some momentum. However, given Utopia's artistic achievements and the momentum its shown so far, I think the New York vote will stick with it and send it home with the top prize. The Little Dog Laughed and Radio Golf really have almost no chance. Golf might since it's August Wilson's last play, but generally, "ethnic" shows don't do well at the Tony's (the mid 70's run of Raisin, The Wiz, and Ain't Misbehavin notwithstanding), and I don't think it's been able to garner enough attention away from Utopia and F/N.
Who Should Win: Since I haven't seen any of them, I can't say, although it would be so nice to see The Little Dog Laughed take this one. It had a great cast and sounded like a good story, and the critics liked it, I don't know why it didn't find an audience, it would be nice for some posthumous recognition.

Best Musical
Who Will Win: And, the most eagerly anticipated award of the night will go to. . . Mary Poppins. Yes, you read that right, and I am not being sarcastic and cynical here. There was an article on playbill.com this morning about plans for a tour, and this is the only one of the four that could play any market with a minimum of costly publicity and pull in audiences. Curtains could do a decent run, but would have to really invest in publicity, and Grey Gardens and Spring Awakening would turn off as many people as enjoyed it. There's a lot of noise that Spring Awakening will win this one, but I think the NY vote will split between it and Grey Gardens, and allow Poppins to rise to the top with the owners' votes. It's the same reason Jersey Boys beat Drowsey Chaperone, Spamalot beat Light In The Piazza (Avenue Q won due to a lot of one-time extenuating circumstances, but its deal with Wynn to not tour pissed off the regional owners and they're not going to get sweet-talked by an ambitious underdog again), Thoroughly Modern Millie beat Urinetown, The Producers beat The Full Monty (albeit having swept all the categories), Contact beat Parade, and The Lion King beat Ragtime, and Sunset Boulevard beat Smokey Joe's Cafe. In fact, you'd have to go back to 1993-94 when Passion beat Beauty and the Beast to find the last time a show with impeccable artistic merit beat out the flashier tour friendly show, and in that case, the NY establishment was firmly behind Passion, there was nothing else to split the vote. Lastly, as I mentioned yesterday, the producers of the Tony's decided to announce the tech awards off camera before the ceremony. Since Poppins is a lock to win all of them but none of the other ones, this move only serves to keep it out of view during the ceremony, making its win a very dramatic, surprising moment, which the Tony's would love. It would give the newspapers something to write about and thrust Broadway into the public eye, even if only for a day, something that hasn't happened since Rosie O'Donnell hosted two ceremonies serveral years ago. I really, really, really hope to God I'm wrong about this, but given the Tony's recent history, I think it's going to happen.
Who Should Win: Grey Gardens. While I also loved Curtains and enjoyed Spring Awakening, GG is one of the greatest shows I have ever seen. Everything about it is so perfect, it completely captured my attention and I didn't want it to end. It even made me forget that I was sick while I was watching it. It is one of the most creative shows to hit Broadway in a long time and I'd love for it to win.
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Really, I can't think of anyone else. Poppins is the most undeserving, but there really wasn't anything else more deserving. Sentimentally I would have preferred to see LoveMusik in the fourth slot, but word of mouth on it is tepid, and The Pirate Queen isn't any more deserving of a nomination than Poppins, and High Fidelity, Legally Blonde, Martin Short, and The Times They Are A'Changin are all out of the question. It actually probably would have behooved the committee just to nominate the trifecta and avoid any potential embarassment, which will happen if Poppins does win, although it wouldn't be as bad as if they had nominated Blonde and that turned out to win. Actually, there are pervasive rumors that several nominating committee members had announced their affection for Blonde, and the non-committee voters really twisted their arms to get them to nominate Poppins instead because they knew the regional owners would push Legally Blonde to a win and no-one wanted that to happen, the Tony's would be instantly irrelevant forever.
Who Should Not Have Been Nominated: Mary Poppins. It's the weakest of the three, although still better than any of the alternatives. The committee should have just stuck with the trifecta as the nominees here, but we can all be glad that Legally Blonde wasn't nominated instead.

Tune in Sunday to see how I did. Also look for a review of Jerry Springer as well. I'll be blogging live during the ceremony. I've got the champagne chilling and just have to get through the CADC exam tomorrow, then it's a Tony party for the rest of the weekend.